{"id":9041,"date":"2025-12-23T16:23:09","date_gmt":"2025-12-23T16:23:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/?p=9041"},"modified":"2025-12-23T16:23:13","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T16:23:13","slug":"el-cacao-no-sostiene-su-precio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/?p=9041","title":{"rendered":"El cacao no sostiene su precio"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

* NOTA: Las opiniones expresadas en esta publicaci\u00f3n no necesariamente reflejan el pensamiento del peri\u00f3dico www.agriculturayganaderia.com y son responsabilidad exclusiva de quien las emite y\/o de su actor.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Por: Alejandro Peralta * \/ Autor Invitado<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agricultura & Ganader\u00eda<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Marcafab \u2013 Martes 23 de diciembre de 2025).- La semana de diciembre estuvo marcada por consolidaci\u00f3n y p\u00e9rdida de momento el rebote fuerte visto a finales de noviembre y comienzos de diciembre. El cacao cerr\u00f3 en 5.850 USD\/t, pr\u00e1cticamente plano respecto a la semana anterior, en un mercado que empieza a diferenciar claramente entre rebote t\u00e9cnico y cambio estructural de tendencia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud835\udddf\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf0\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee \ud835\ude01\u00e9\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddee:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Desde el punto de vista t\u00e9cnico, el gr\u00e1fico es bastante claro:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El precio fall\u00f3 en sostenerse por encima de la zona 6.200\u20136.300 USD\/t, \u00e1rea que coincide con antiguas zonas de valor y oferta relevante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El movimiento de las \u00faltimas semanas luce m\u00e1s como una correcci\u00f3n dentro de una tendencia bajista mayor, que como el inicio de un nuevo ciclo alcista.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El soporte clave de corto plazo se mantiene en 5.600\u20135.700 USD\/t. Perder esa zona reabrir\u00eda el escenario de testear nuevamente los m\u00ednimos de noviembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En otras palabras: el mercado est\u00e1 digiriendo el rebote, no valid\u00e1ndolo a\u00fan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ac\u00e1 el tono del mercado fue m\u00e1s prudente:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. <\/strong>\ud835\udde2\ud835\uddf3\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee<\/strong>: <\/strong>\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude03\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfc<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude06\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf9<\/strong>, <\/strong>\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddfc<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf0\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf9<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los flujos desde \u00c1frica Occidental se han mantenido relativamente estables en esta etapa del a\u00f1o, lo que reduce la urgencia de la cobertura de corto plazo. Sin embargo, los problemas de fondo no desaparecen: plantaciones envejecidas, baja productividad y alta dependencia clim\u00e1tica siguen siendo un riesgo latente para 2026 en adelante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud835\udfee<\/strong>. <\/strong>\ud835\uddd7\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee<\/strong>: <\/strong>\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\ude02\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude03<\/strong>\u00ed<\/strong>\ud835\uddee<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude02\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddee<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los grinders contin\u00faan operando con m\u00e1rgenes ajustados. Tras los precios extremos vistos a inicios de a\u00f1o, la industria ha sido m\u00e1s selectiva en compras y coberturas, priorizando visibilidad de m\u00e1rgenes sobre volumen. Esto limita la fuerza de cualquier rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud835\udfef<\/strong>. <\/strong>\ud835\udddf\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfa<\/strong>\u00e9<\/strong>\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddee<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddee<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfc<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ecuador sigue consolid\u00e1ndose como un origen cada vez m\u00e1s relevante en el balance global, tanto por volumen como por calidad y trazabilidad. En un mercado m\u00e1s racional, este factor empieza a pesar m\u00e1s que el \u201cruido\u201d especulativo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud835\udff0<\/strong>. <\/strong>\ud835\uddd9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\uddee<\/strong>\u00f1<\/strong>\ud835\uddfc<\/strong> = <\/strong>\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude00<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfe\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude07<\/strong>, <\/strong>\ud835\uddfa<\/strong>\u00e1<\/strong>\ud835\ude00<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddfc<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La cercan\u00eda del cierre de a\u00f1o fiscal y la reducci\u00f3n de participaci\u00f3n de fondos hacen que muchos movimientos recientes respondan m\u00e1s a \ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf7\ud835\ude02\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 que a convicci\u00f3n real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud835\udde0\ud835\uddf6<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf0\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee<\/strong> <\/strong>\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf9<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El rango \ud835\udff1.\ud835\udff2\ud835\udfec\ud835\udfec\u2013\ud835\udff2.\ud835\udfee\ud835\udfec\ud835\udfec \ud835\udde8\ud835\udde6\ud835\uddd7\/\ud835\ude01 se perfila como la zona donde el mercado intenta decidir si:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sigue corrigiendo hacia niveles m\u00e1s bajos… o construye una base m\u00e1s s\u00f3lida antes de volver a mirar hacia arriba en 2026. El cacao sigue siendo un mercado estructuralmente complejo. La volatilidad baja de esta semana no es calma definitiva; es simplemente el mercado “tomando aire”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* Alejandro Peralta (Anal\u00edtico y Escritor), LATAM Business Developer and Expansion Specialist. Marketing & Comercio de Caf\u00e9 & Cacao.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

* NOTA: Las opiniones expresadas en esta publicaci\u00f3n no necesariamente reflejan el pensamiento del peri\u00f3dico www.agriculturayganaderia.com y son responsabilidad exclusiva de quien las emite y\/o de su actor. Por: Alejandro Peralta * \/ Autor Invitado Agricultura & Ganader\u00eda (Marcafab \u2013 Martes 23 de diciembre de 2025).- La semana de diciembre estuvo marcada por consolidaci\u00f3n y […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9042,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-9041","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-opinion","9":"post-with-thumbnail","10":"post-with-thumbnail-large"},"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800.jpg",800,453,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800-300x170.jpg",300,170,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800-768x435.jpg",720,408,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800.jpg",720,408,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800.jpg",800,453,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800.jpg",800,453,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800-720x380.jpg",720,380,true],"vantage-thumbnail-no-sidebar":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800-800x380.jpg",800,380,true],"vantage-slide":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800.jpg",800,453,false],"vantage-carousel":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800-272x182.jpg",272,182,true],"vantage-grid-loop":["https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/107-Cacao-en-grano-800-436x272.jpg",436,272,true]},"author_info":{"display_name":"Agricultura y Ganader\u00eda","author_link":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/?author=1"},"category_info":"OPINI\u00d3N<\/a>","tag_info":"OPINI\u00d3N","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9041"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9041\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9043,"href":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9041\/revisions\/9043"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9042"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agriculturayganaderia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}